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Page 2 ASSOCIATIONINSIGHT Portable Sanitation Association International News BIWEEKLY EDITION JANUARY 8, 2020 The Economic Outlook …continued from page 1 …Continued on page 11 Overall Economic Picture Outside North America, 2018 and 2019 brought a minor slowdown in sequential growth to many national economies. Sources such as Goldman Sachs predict that trend will end soon, and they look for annual average GDP around the world to rise modestly in 2020. This assumes trade issues don't take too much of a toll on international commerce and strong job markets put pressure on employers to increase wages. In general, the US economy posted respectable growth in 2019. The US GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.0% in the second quarter and 2.1% in the third quarter, after a stronger start of 3.1% in Q1. However, by mid-November several sources predicted that 2019's Q4 would result in virtually no growth, setting off recessionary concerns in some sectors. By December, though, a market rally led a number of those sources to revise their predictions and moderate their worries. As of early January 2020, forecasts for 2019's Q4 ranged between the New York Fed's 1.1% prediction and the Atlanta Fed's 2.3% estimate, with several others such as the Wall Street Journal and the Conference Board falling in between. This has effectively squelched further recessionary talk for the time being. Looking ahead, many sources believe the US economy will grow more slowly in 2020 than it has the last few years. The present consensus is that odds of a US economic recession—defined as two or more consecutive quarters of declining GDP—are fairly low in 2020. Bloomberg economic forecasters see only a 33% probability of a recession by October-November 2020 and Deloitte gives recession only a 25% probability as of its Q4 2019 US forecast. Goldman Sachs characterizes the chances of a global recession in 2020 as a "more limited" 20%, and CBRE Research says flatly, "Importantly, a recession will be avoided, absent unforeseen shocks …" Some experts and business leaders are looking at 2020 as though it is simply a path we have to take to get to 2021. For example, • "The United States economy will look about the same in 2020 as it did in 2019, but will improve in 2021." –Bill Conerly, Forbes, December 13, 2019 • "Growth slows below potential in 2020 but picks up to potential (a bit below 2.0 percent) for [2021 and later]." -Deloitte Economist Network, US Economic Forecast, 4th Quarter 2019 * Sources: Actual numbers through Q3 2019 are from bea.gov. Q4 forecast is a function of January 3, 2020 forecasts for Q4 from ATL Fed, NY Fed, at STL Fed Nowcasts, as well as December 2019 forecasts from the Wall Street Journal and the Conference Board.