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25 2019 INDUSTRY RESOURCE DIRECTORY Industry Data US Real GDP Outlook Overall Economic Forecast Despite the weak market in the last months of 2018, multiple sources believe the odds are against the US economy entering a recession in 2019. A recession is defined as a contraction of the GDP for two or more quarters, and while economic indicators are not likely to be robust, there is consensus that things will not settle into such a protracted decline. More likely we will continue to see volatility and slower growth overall, both in the United States and globally. In many respects 2018 posted very strong economic growth, with the US GDP rising at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter and at 4.2% in the second quarter, according to the Bureau of Economic Statistics. During the early and middle part of the year, consumers spent more, companies invested in inventories, and local governments maintained their spending, the BEA said. However, things began to slow in the third quarter. The market began to lose significant ground, and by the fourth quarter market volatility and the outcome of the November midterm election resulted in more cautious outlooks throughout the economy. Consequently, experts tempered their forecasts for Q4 of 2018 and business leaders are now looking at 2019 with more caution. A survey of economists by Reuters in mid- December 2018 shows that most expect the chance of a recession in the US is still low, at 35%, although the survey also showed that the median probability of a recession has inched up from 30% in the past month. In early January 2019, Larry Summers, a Harvard economist and former treasury secretary during the Clinton Administration, said there's a nearly 50% chance of a recession by 2020. *Sources: Actual numbers from bea.gov. Median forecast is a function of December 2018 forecasts for Q4 from US Business Cycle Risk Report, Now-casting.com, CNBC, Wall Street Journal, GDPNow, and the St. Louis Fed NowCast 2017 Q4 – Actual 2018 Q1 – Actual 2018 Q2 – Actual 2018 Q3 – Actual 2018 Q4 – Median Forecast* 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2.3% 2.2% 4.2% 3.5% 2.7% Better worksites. Better weekends. Better world. EXCLUSIVE MEMBERS-ONLY CONTENT REDACTED Join us now at www.psai.org for access to this valuable information.